Population Projections for Japan: 2016 to 2065 (Appendix: Auxiliary Projections 2066 to 2115)

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I. Introduction

II. Summary of Population Trends

A. The Results of Projections According to the Three Fertility Variants with Medium-Mortality Assumption

1. Population Size and Growth
2. Population Age Composition
3. Age Dependency Ratios
4. Changes in the Population Pyramid

B. The Results of Projections According to the Medium-Fertility Assumption with High- and Low-Mortality Assumptions

1. Summary of the Results of Projections with High-Mortality Assumption
2. Summary of the Results of Projections with Low-Mortality Assumption

C. The Results of Projections According to the High- and Low-Fertility Assumptions with High- and Low-Mortality Assumptions




III. Summary of the Method Used for Population Projections

1. Jump-off Population
2. Assumptions for Fertility Rates and Sex Ratio at Birth
3. Assumptions for Survival Rates (Future Life Table)
4. Assumptions for the International Migration Rate (Numbers)
5. Long-range Auxiliary Projections and Conditional Projections




IV.Tables and Figures



1. Summary of Results and Assumptions


2. the Three Fertility Variants with Medium-Mortality Assumption

	Table 1-1:	Total population, population by the major three age groups (under 15, 15-64, and 65 and over), and age composition: Medium-fertility (medium-mortality) projection
	Table 1-2:	Total population, population by the major three age groups (under 15, 15-64, and 65 and over), and age composition: High-fertility (medium-mortality) projection
	Table 1-3:	Total population, population by the major three age groups (under 15, 15-64, and 65 and over), and age composition: Low-fertility (medium-mortality) projection
	Table 1-4:	Mean age and dependency ratio: Medium-, high-, and low-fertility (medium-mortality) projection




	Figure 1-1:	Actual and projected population of Japan: Medium-, high-, and low-fertility (medium-mortality) projections
	Figure 1-2:	Trends in the proportion of elderly (aged 65 and over): Medium-, high-, and low-fertility (medium-mortality) projections
	Figure 1-3:	Trends in the population of major three age groups: Medium-fertility (medium-mortality) projections
	Figure 1-4:	Trends in the proportion of major three age groups: Medium-fertility (medium-mortality) projections
	Figure 1-5:	Population pyramid: Three fertility variant projections (medium-mortality)



3. Results of Projections According to the Medium-Fertility Assumption with High- and Low-Mortality Assumptions

	Table 2-1:	Total population, population by the major three age groups (under 15, 15-64, and 65 and over), and age composition: Medium-fertility (high-mortality) projection
	Table 2-2:	Total population, population by the major three age groups (under 15, 15-64, and 65 and over), and age composition: Medium-fertility (low-mortality) projection
	Table 2-3:	Mean age and dependency ratio: Medium-fertility (medium-, high-, and low-mortality) projections




	Figure 2-1:	Actual and projected population of Japan: Medium-fetility (medium-, hith, and low-mortality) projections
	Figure 2-2:	Trends in the proportion of elderly (aged 65 and over): Medium-, high-, and low-fertility (medium-mortality) projections



4. Comparison of Projection Variants

	Table 3-1:	Total population: Medium-, high-, and low-fertility (medium-, high-, and low-mortality) projections
	Table 3-2:	Projections of Proportion of Young-age Population (under 15): Medium-, high-, and low-fertility (medium-, high-, and low-mortality) projections
	Table 3-3:	Projections of Proportion of Working-age Population (15-64): Medium-, high-, and low-fertility (medium-, high-, and low-mortality) projections
	Table 3-4:	Projections of Proportion of Old Age Population (65 and over): Medium-, high-, and low-fertility (medium-, high-, and low-mortality) projections



5. Assumption Values

	Table 4-1:	Development of the Total Fertility Rate
	Table 4-2:	Development of Life Expectancy at Birth by Sex
	Table 4-3:	Age-specific net international migration rates by sex for Japanese
	Table 4-4:	Number of net migrants of non-Japanese origin by sex
	Table 4-5:	Age distributions of net migrants of non-Japanese origin by sex




	Figure 4-1:	Trends of the total fertility rate: Medium-, high-, and low-variant projections
	Figure 4-2:	Trends of life expectancy: Medium-, high-, and low-variant projections
	Figure 4-3:	Age-specific net international migration rates by sex for Japanese
	Figure 4-4:	Number of net migrants of non-Japanese origin (both sexes)
	Figure 4-5:	Age distributions of net migrants of non-Japanese origin by sex



6. Results of Auxiliary Projections

We made auxiliary projections for the period from 2061 to 2110, which may be used as a reference for analysis of long-term population projections. In these projections, the survival rate-fertility rate, sex ratio at birth, and international migration rate are assumed to remain constant from 2061.

	Table 5-1:	Total population, population by the major three age groups (under 15, 15-64, and 65 and over), and age composition: Medium-fertility (medium-mortality) projection
	Table 5-2:	Total population, population by the major three age groups (under 15, 15-64, and 65 and over), and age composition: High-fertility (medium-mortality) projection
	Table 5-3:	Total population, population by the major three age groups (under 15, 15-64, and 65 and over), and age composition: Low-fertility (medium-mortality) projection
	Table 5-4:	Total population, population by the major three age groups (under 15, 15-64, and 65 and over), and age composition: Medium-fertility (high-mortality) projection
	Table 5-5:	Total population, population by the major three age groups (under 15, 15-64, and 65 and over), and age composition: Medium-fertility (low-mortality) projection
	Table 5-6:	Total population: Medium-, high-, and low-fertility (medium-, high-, and low-mortality) projections




7. Results of Conditional Projections

Conditional projections are quantitative simulations for analyzing the responses on the future populations to the changes of the assumptions in mechanical manners. The results of the counterfactual simulations of the future population corresponding to various scenarios with different fertility and non-Japanese net migration levels are exhibited.

	Table 6-1:	Total population: Total fertility rate(2065) 1.00, 1.20, 1.40, 1.60, 1.80, 2.00, 2.20 each projections
	Table 6-2:	Proportion of Old Age Population (65 and over): Total fertility rate(2065) 1.00, 1.20, 1.40, 1.60, 1.80, 2.00, 2.20 each projections
	Table 6-3:	Total population: Number of net migrants of non-Japanese origin(2035) 0, 50000, 100000, 250000, 500000, 750000, 1000000 each projections
	Table 6-4:	Proportion of Old Age Population (65 and over): Number of net migrants of non-Japanese origin(2035) 0, 50000, 100000, 250000, 500000, 750000, 1000000 each projections





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