IPSS Home  Population Projections for Japan (2017)

Table 3-4 Download


Table 3-4: Projections of Proportion of Old Age Population (65 and over): Medium-, high-, and low-fertility (medium-, high-, and low-mortality) projections
(%)
Year Medium mortality assumption High mortality assumption Low mortality assumption
Medium fertility High fertility  Low fertility  Medium fertility High fertility  Low fertility  Medium fertility High fertility  Low fertility 
2015 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6
2016 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.3
2017 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.9 27.9 27.9
2018 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.4
2019 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.7 28.7 28.8
2020 28.9 28.8 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.7 29.1 29.0 29.2
2021 29.1 29.0 29.2 28.9 28.8 29.0 29.4 29.3 29.5
2022 29.3 29.2 29.5 29.0 28.9 29.2 29.6 29.5 29.8
2023 29.6 29.4 29.7 29.2 29.0 29.4 29.9 29.7 30.0
2024 29.8 29.6 30.0 29.4 29.2 29.6 30.2 29.9 30.4
2025 30.0 29.8 30.2 29.6 29.3 29.8 30.4 30.1 30.6
2026 30.2 29.9 30.5 29.8 29.5 30.0 30.6 30.3 30.9
2027 30.4 30.1 30.7 29.9 29.6 30.2 30.8 30.5 31.1
2028 30.6 30.3 30.9 30.1 29.8 30.4 31.1 30.7 31.4
2029 30.9 30.5 31.2 30.3 29.9 30.7 31.4 31.0 31.7
2030 31.2 30.8 31.6 30.6 30.2 31.1 31.7 31.3 32.1
2031 31.3 30.8 31.7 30.7 30.2 31.1 31.8 31.3 32.2
2032 31.6 31.1 32.1 31.0 30.5 31.5 32.2 31.7 32.7
2033 32.0 31.4 32.5 31.4 30.8 31.9 32.6 32.0 33.1
2034 32.4 31.8 33.0 31.8 31.2 32.3 33.0 32.4 33.6
2035 32.8 32.2 33.4 32.2 31.5 32.8 33.4 32.8 34.1
2036 33.3 32.6 33.9 32.6 32.0 33.3 33.9 33.3 34.6
2037 33.8 33.1 34.5 33.1 32.4 33.8 34.5 33.7 35.2
2038 34.4 33.6 35.1 33.7 32.9 34.4 35.0 34.3 35.8
2039 34.9 34.1 35.7 34.2 33.4 35.0 35.6 34.8 36.4
2040 35.3 34.5 36.2 34.6 33.8 35.5 36.0 35.2 36.9
2041 35.7 34.8 36.6 35.0 34.1 35.9 36.4 35.5 37.3
2042 36.1 35.1 37.0 35.3 34.3 36.3 36.8 35.8 37.7
2043 36.4 35.3 37.4 35.6 34.6 36.6 37.1 36.0 38.1
2044 36.6 35.5 37.7 35.8 34.8 36.9 37.3 36.2 38.4
2045 36.8 35.7 37.9 36.1 34.9 37.2 37.6 36.4 38.7
2046 37.0 35.8 38.2 36.2 35.0 37.4 37.8 36.6 38.9
2047 37.2 35.9 38.4 36.4 35.1 37.6 37.9 36.7 39.2
2048 37.4 36.0 38.7 36.6 35.2 37.9 38.1 36.8 39.4
2049 37.5 36.1 38.9 36.7 35.3 38.1 38.3 36.9 39.7
2050 37.7 36.2 39.1 36.9 35.4 38.3 38.5 37.0 39.9
2051 37.8 36.2 39.3 37.0 35.4 38.5 38.6 37.0 40.1
2052 37.9 36.3 39.5 37.0 35.4 38.6 38.7 37.1 40.3
2053 38.0 36.3 39.6 37.1 35.4 38.8 38.8 37.1 40.5
2054 38.0 36.2 39.7 37.1 35.4 38.9 38.8 37.0 40.6
2055 38.0 36.2 39.8 37.1 35.3 38.9 38.9 37.0 40.7
2056 38.0 36.1 39.9 37.1 35.2 39.0 38.9 36.9 40.8
2057 38.0 36.0 40.0 37.1 35.1 39.1 38.9 36.9 40.9
2058 38.0 35.9 40.1 37.1 35.0 39.2 38.9 36.8 41.0
2059 38.1 35.9 40.3 37.1 34.9 39.3 39.0 36.8 41.2
2060 38.1 35.8 40.4 37.2 34.9 39.4 39.1 36.8 41.4
2061 38.2 35.8 40.5 37.2 34.8 39.5 39.1 36.7 41.5
2062 38.2 35.8 40.7 37.2 34.8 39.7 39.2 36.7 41.7
2063 38.3 35.7 40.9 37.3 34.7 39.8 39.3 36.7 41.9
2064 38.3 35.7 41.0 37.3 34.7 39.9 39.3 36.7 42.0
2065 38.4 35.6 41.2 37.3 34.6 40.1 39.4 36.6 42.2
Current population as of October 1 of each year. Indices for 2015 are based on the jump-off population from the 2015 Population Census by the Statistics Bureau of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (Unknown age and nationality population is included after being prorated to each age and nationality population.)