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National Institute of Population and Social Security Research

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About Institute

Research projects
1. Pursuing the law of population motion in history
Study on the Population and Life Course Dynamics in the First and Second Demographic Transition and Their Future Prospects (2011-2013)
[Project by MEXT Grant]
We conducted a group of investigations to identify the mechanisms of demographic development and its relationships to changes in society and economy during the two demographic transitions that result in a worldwide historical trend of ending population growth, and demographic aging with the declining birth rate. All the developed countries in the world experienced fertility declines below replacement level, or the second demographic transition with the erosion of traditional values and life styles, following the major shift between demographic regimes of high birth rate with high death rate and low birth rate and low death rate, or the classic demographic transition. Hence future trends of those populations and societies are opaque ever. The similar experiences are expanding outside of the developed countries and social transformations with population aging will infiltrate through the world in the late 21st century. Among them Japan is entering new population-society regime of the next generation leading in the very front.
In this research project restructuring of the demographic transition theories was attempted to have outlook for future population and society in Japan through tracing the process of inescapable changes in demo-socio-economic system during the two transition phases applying the population projection methods.
●Transition processes of the first demographic transition through the second (post demographic transition period)
Transition processes of the first demographic transition through the second (post demographic transition period)
The demographic transition in Japan had once come to an end in 1950's. Since mid 0f 1970's, however, it entered a phase of motion again followed by manifesting consequences after 1990's and later. Transitions in population, economy and society markedly went along with, indicating those are inescapable development.
●Transitions of demographic regime by region: Actual and projected figures (UN estimates in 2012)
Transitions of demographic regime by region: Actual and projected figures (UN estimates in 2012)
According to the classic theory the demographic transition can be seen as a process of temporal breakaway and resume on the replacement track on the surface of vital measures (the life expectancy and the total fertility rate) during modernization movement between two equilibrium (pre-modern regime = high birth rate with high death rate, and modern regime = low birth rate with low death rate). The actual courses experienced by the most developed countries, however, were overshooting at the resume below replacement level. While the United Nation projects eventual resumes onto the replacement line based on the classic theory (indicated by reversing dots), there are also alternative views for post-modern world where replacement would not be attained.
2. How will the incorporation of immigrants affect the future population dynamics and the social security in Japan?
Integration of foreign-born population and its impact on future population dynamics and social security in Japan (2011-2012)
[Project by MHLW Grant]
Japan will experience a constant population decline due to its very low fertility rate, now and into the future. As a result, population ageing will rapidly progress in the near future, combined with Japan’s international highest but still rising longevity. However, there have been few research initiatives on the incorporation of immigrants to tackle these challenges, because the Japanese government has been relatively conservative regarding immigration policy. Therefore, the present study aims to explore the impact of integrating the foreign-born population on future population dynamics and social security in Japan by setting several policy scenarios.
●Impact of integration of foreign-born population on future population dynamics Impact on total population
Impact of integration of foreign-born population on future population dynamics 
Impact on total population
  • The integration of male foreign laborers will increase the total population, which will be further boosted by the integration of their spouses who give birth to a second generation.
  • The integration of foreign laborers also will have a major impact on the age structure of Japan, which will have a major impact on the future pay-as-you-go contribution rate of the EPI (Employees’ Pension Insurance) (before modifying indexation).
●Impact of integration of foreign-born population on the future EPI
Impact on a pay-as-you-go contribution rate (before modifying indexation)
Impact of integration of foreign-born population on the future EPI  
Impact on a pay-as-you-go contribution rate (before modifying indexation)
The prospect of a pay-as-you-go EPI contribution rate is similar to the old-age dependency ratio, which is almost the same as a ratio of the number of pension beneficiaries per working age people. Then, we revealed that the acceptance of male foreign laborers will have a positive impact on pension financing, although their ageing will have a negative impact in the long run. However, the prospect of family reunion and giving birth to a second generation will have a positive impact in the long run.
3. Exploration of the effect of multidisciplinary collaborative care management
Research on the construction of the medical and nursing care coordination system that contributes to life enhancements relating to elder care (2010-2012)
[Project by MHLW Grant]
At present, shorter hospital stays have been promoted to optimize medical expenses. However, there are many cases where the discharge of elderly patients, who account for about 70% of all hospitalized patients, does not proceed smoothly. Therefore, a mechanism to facilitate smooth discharge is in process.
If the care recipient recieves care at home, post-discharge nursing services will be provided based on the care plan created by care managers. Activities of Daily Living (ADL), are likely to change significantly immediately after hospital discharge, so it will be important for rehabilitation professionals (or general rehabilitation staff) to cooperate thoroughly with care managers. However, there has been no research about the reality of cooperation of both parties at the time of hospital discharge.
Therefore, in this study, a questionnaire survey was conducted to reveal the challenges of cooperation for both parties, aiming to verify the effectiveness of care management carried out in cooperation.
●Figure 1 Rate of participation in pre-discharge care conferences (case of discharge from acute-phase hospital beds)
Figure 1  Rate of participation in pre-discharge care conferences (case of discharge from acute-phase hospital beds)
Pre-discharge care conferences, which bring together stakeholders from both the hospital and home, are important meetings to confirm points to remember for post-discharge medical treatment and services for those requiring nursing care. However, the participation rate of rehabilitation staff in these meetings is low, and most home rehabilitation staff cannot join them. In this regard, it is currently not possible to properly introduce rehabilitation services to post-discharge care plans.

Source) Kawagoe Masahiro, Bishu Nobuhiko, Michiko Moriyama: Rehabilitation Staff Involvement in the Process of Discharge Planning for the Frail Elderly: Comparison of Acute, Sub-acute and Chronic Care Settings 26 (3), 387-392,2011.6.
●Figure 2 Effect of care management carried out in cooperation
A) Changes in ADL
A) Changes in ADL
B) Changes in the care plan (change of introduction rate of service content)
B)  Changes in the care plan (change of introduction rate of service 
content)
When comparing the change in ADL three months after discharge for groups that received at home post-discharge care with the expertise of rehabilitation professionals (coordinated care management groups) with those who received care from individual care managers (normal care management groups), there was a clear improvement for those receiving care from coordinated care management groups. Additionally, when examining the content of care plans, the rate of introduction for balance exercises was high in coordinated care management groups, while there was no change in normal care management groups. In this way, it can be understood that the benefits of rehabilitation professionals’ expertise are reflected in the care plans of coordinated care management groups