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National Institute of Population and Social Security Research

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About Institute

Research projects
1. Aiming to construct a healthcare and nursing care delivery system for 2025 and beyond
Study on sustainable evaluation and reflection in planning for the effective use of funds to ensure comprehensive healthcare and nursing care (2015-2016)
[Project by MEXT Grant]
Japan is faced with a super-aged society as the entire baby-boom generation will be over the age of 75 in 2025. It is important to maintain an environment for each citizen where they can continue to live their final years with peace of mind in a familiar setting as much as possible even when healthcare and nursing care are required. In these circumstances, it is necessary to establish a system that provides seamless healthcare and nursing care from the user's perspective, and realize sustained care that supports the independence and dignity of each citizen into the future.
To contribute to the above-mentioned measures of the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare from a research perspective, this project researched 1) establishing a sustainable evaluation method necessary for the effective and efficient use of funds and the construction of indicators for evaluation, 2) clarifying the influencing factors of selection of fund projects by prefectures, and 3) clarifying the actual implementation cycle in prefectures, with respect to the funds (Regional funds for promoting healthcare and long-term care) based on Article 6 of the Act on Promotion of Comprehensive Securing of Medical Care and Nursing Care in Areas.
●Evaluation framework for comprehensive healthcare and nursing care (outline)
Transition processes of the first demographic transition through the second (post demographic transition period)
Source: Created by research team with references to OECD (2015)* *Health at a Glance 2015: OECD Indicators, OECD Publishing, Paris.
Source: Ishikawa Report
●Sample evaluation indicators of configured fund projects (project classification 1)
Transitions of demographic regime by region: Actual and projected figures (UN estimates in 2012)
2. Investigating ways of rehabilitation that improve activity and participation levels
Comprehensive study on effective rehabilitation and rehabilitation management that contributes to life enhancements of elderly requiring long-term care (2015-2017)
[Project by MHLW Grant]
An integrated community care system, providing healthcare, long-term care, preventive long-term care, housing, and livelihood support in an integrated manner, is being built for 2025, so that the baby-boom generation that will be over 75 years old will able to continue living in familiar settings with ease even after they come to require advanced-level care.
While it is important to balance each element of “body functions,” “activities,” and “participation” for elderly with deteriorated livelihood functions to continue living in familiar settings, much of the currently provided rehabilitation leans toward the recovery of “body functions.”
This research aims to identify rehabilitation methods that contribute to the improvement of activity and participation levels of the elderly, and to develop ways of management for these methods to work effectively.
●Figure 1. Image of rehabilitation for the elderly
Figure 1. Image of rehabilitation for the elderly
The International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF) adopted by the World Health Organization (WHO) General Assembly in May 2001, writes that three “life function” elements are needed for a person to live, which are 1) the "body functions" that are the movements of the body and mental state, 2) activities of daily living (ADL), such as eating, and general daily activities such as housework, vocational skills, and waking outdoors, and 3) participation in home and society as part of fulfilling a role.
Source: MHLW Annual Health, Labour and Welfare Report 2016
●Figure 2. Change in the condition of users of rehabilitation
Figure 2. Change in the condition of users of rehabilitation
Among the elderly who use rehabilitation, of the group that continued living at home one year later (home group) and those living in a facility (non-home group), in comparing the change in condition over a year, the non-home group not only saw deterioration in body functions and structures compared to the home group, but also had a greater proportion of declining ADL/IADL functions. will have a positive impact in the long run.
●Figure 3. Implementation of rehabilitation
Figure 3. Implementation of rehabilitation
In examining the content of the rehabilitation performed, while a high percentage is aimed at restoring body functions such as walking and mobility training, the improvement of ADL (eating, excretion, bathing, etc.) and IADL (cooking, laundry, shopping, etc.), accounts for a low percentage of rehabilitation.
3. Exploring the next generation projection system and its policy applications based on analysis of advanced population and household trends
Comprehensive study on population and household dynamics and population projections in an era of declining population (2014-2016)
[Project by MHLW Grant]
Research was conducted with the aim of projecting the future demographics of Japan as its population enters a period of decline. Projections of the future population and households is used in the formulation of various policies, but as Japan's population enters a period of decline, changes in regions and households affect nationwide trends such as the declining birth rate and longevity, and develop w ith a synergistic effect, which requires deeper analysis of population and household trends reflecting recent research, a future projection model incorporating a new perspective that puts more emphasis on provided information on the future of regions/households and integrates the tendency of declining birth rates and longevity nationwide, and policy simulation using the future projection of demography and households.
Specifically, the research focused on three areas: (1) Analysis of comprehensive population and household trends in the period of declining population by applying state-of-the-art technology, (2) Fundamental research on a nextgeneration future projection model with emphasis on regional and household projections, and (3) Research relating to policy simulations using future projections.
●Future projection method of population transition with the pool model (outline)
Future projection method of population transition with the pool model (outline)
The pool model was used to project the future population by prefecture for the research on the next-generation future projection system. The research showed that it is possible to calculate a stable projection with no inconsistencies in population migration, that there is a possibility that results can be obtained close to where the net migration rate is reduced in a single region model, and that it is possible to quantitatively evaluate the impact of each assumption on the projection results including other regions.
●Effect of incorporation of foreigners on income substitution rate of the public pension (pattern 1)
A) Changes in ADL
As an application for policy simulation, a financial simulation was conducted on the impact of the incorporation of the foreign population on the public pension. The figure on the left shows the effect of the income substitution rate on the public pension when taking in foreign workers, and pattern 1 shows the case of accepting male low-wage workers. The horizontal axis shows the incorporation cases where A, B1, B2 are the integration for the public pension system, while A' and B' are the national pension for the basic case not to expand the integration of foreigners. As A shows the integration of foreign workers only, B is the accompaniment or calling of dependents or family. B1 and B2 are the wage levels of workers from the second generation onward where B1 is low wages and B2 are high wages.
The level of decline in the basic pension level is reduced in applying the integration of foreigners to the national pension system. Thus, attention should be given to the fact that in discussing the integration of foreigners, in addition to the impact on long-term population trends, there is an effect on the problem of declining basic pension levels.
4. Comprehensive study of population aging and migration in Eastern Asian and ASEAN countries
(2015-2017)
[Project by MHLW Grant]
South Korea and Taiwan are suffering from significantly lower fertility than in Japan, while China and Singapore have low fertility rates as low as Japan. Japan currently has the most aging population in the world, but in the future South Korea and Taiwan will overtake Japan, while other Eastern Asian and ASEAN countries will certainly approach Japan. Such an acute fertility decline and the aging of the population are thought to activate domestic migration with rural areas depopulating and gathering in urban centers, and international migration incorporating foreign workers including healthcare and long-term care workers, international marriages and invited retirees. This research aims to grasp and analyze drastic fertility decline, population aging, and various migration in this region.
●Percentage of population aged 65 or older
Percentage of population aged 65 or older
Calculated based on United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, 2015 Revision