A. The Results of Projections According to the Three Fertility Variants
with Medium-Mortality Assumption
1. Population Size and Growth
2. Population Age Composition
3. Age Dependency Ratio
4. Changes in the Population Pyramid
B. The Results of Projections According to the Medium-Fertility Assumption
with High- and Low-Mortality Assumptions
1. Summary of the Results of Projection with High-Mortality Assumption
2. Summary of the Results of Projection with Low-Mortality Assumption
1. Jump-off Population
2. Assumptions for Fertility Rates and Sex Ratio at Birth
3. Assumptions for Survival Rates (Future Life Table)
4. Assumptions for the International Migration Rate (Numbers)
IV Auxiliary Projections
V Summary Tables and Figures
A. Summary of Results and Assumptions
B. Results of Projections According to the Three Fertility Variants
with Medium-Mortality Assumption
C. Results of Projections According to the Medium-Fertility Assumption
with High- and Low-Mortality Assumptions
D. Comparison of Projection Variants
E. Assumption Values
F. Results of Auxiliary Projections
Results of Projections
<< the Three Fertility Variants with Medium-Mortality Assumption >>
Table 1-1 Total population, population by the major three age groups (under 15, 15-64,
and 65 and over),
and age composition: Medium-fertility (medium-mortality) projection
Table 1-2 Total population, population by the major three age groups (under 15,
15-64, and 65 and over),
and age composition: High-fertility (medium-mortality) projection
Table 1-3 Total population, population by the major three age groups (under 15, 15-64, and 65 and over),
and age composition: Low-fertility (medium-mortality) projection
Table 1-4 Mean age and dependency ratio: Medium-, high-, and low-fertility (medium-mortality) projection
Figure 1-1 Actual and projected population of Japan: Medium-, high-, and low-fertility
(medium-mortality) projections
Figure 1-2 Trends in the proportion of elderly (aged 65 and over): Medium-, high-,
and low-fertility
(medium-mortality) projections
Figure 1-3 Trends in the population of major three age groups: Medium-fertility
(medium-mortality) projections
Figure 1-4 Trends in the proportion of major three age groups: Medium-fertility
(medium-mortality) projections
Figure 1-5 Population pyramid: Three fertility variant projections (medium-mortality)
<< the Medium-Fertility Assumption with High- and Low-Mortality Assumptions >>
Table 2-1 Total population, population by the major three age groups (under 15, 15-64,
and 65 and over),
and age composition: Medium-fertility (high-mortality) projection
Table 2-2 Total population, population by the major three age groups (under 15, 15-64, and 65 and over),
and age composition: Medium-fertility (low-mortality) projection
Table 2-3 Mean age and dependency ratio: Medium-fertility (medium-, high-, and low-mortality) projections
Figure 2-1 Actual and projected population of Japan: Medium-fertility
(medium-, high-, and low-mortality) projections
Figure 2-2 Trends in the proportion of elderly (aged 65 and over): Medium-fertility
(medium-, high-, and low-mortality) projections
<< Comparison of Projection Variants >>
Table 3-1 Total population: Medium-, high-, and low-fertility (medium-, high-, and low-mortality) projections
Table 3-2 Projections of Proportion of Young-age Population (under 15):
Medium-, high-, and low-fertility (medium-, high-, and low-mortality)
projections
Table 3-3 Projections of Proportion of Working-age Population (15-64): Medium-, high-, and low-fertility
(medium-, high-, and low-mortality) projections
Table 3-4 Projections of Proportion of Old Age Population (65 and over): Medium-, high-, and low-fertility
(medium-, high-, and low-mortality) projections
<< Assumption Values >>
Table 4-1 Development of the Total Fertility Rate
Table 4-2 Development of Life Expectancy at Birth by Sex
Table 4-3 Age-specific net international migration rates by sex for Japanese
Table 4-4 Number of net migrants of non-Japanese origin by sex
Table 4-5 Age distributions of net migrants of non-Japanese origin by sex
Figure 4-1 Trends of the total fertility rate: Medium-, high-, and low-variant projections
Figure 4-2 Trends of life expectancy: Medium-, high-, and low-variant projections
Figure 4-3 Age-specific net international migration rates by sex for Japanese
Figure 4-4 Number of net migrants of non-Japanese origin (both sexes)
Figure 4-5 Age distributions of net migrants of non-Japanese origin by sex
Results of Auxiliary Projections
| We made auxiliary projections for the period from 2061 to 2110, which may be used as a reference for analysis of long-term population projections. In these projections, the survival rate-fertility rate, sex ratio at birth, and international migration rate are assumed to remain constant from 2061. |
Table 5-1 Total population, population by the major three age groups (under 15, 15-64,
and 65 and over),
and age composition: Medium-fertility (medium-mortality) projection
Table 5-2 Total population, population by the major three age groups (under 15, 15-64,
and 65 and over),
and age composition: High-fertility (medium-mortality) projection
Table 5-3 Total population, population by the major three age groups (under 15, 15-64,
and 65 and over),
and age composition: Low-fertility (medium-mortality) projection
Table 5-4 Total population, population by the major three age groups (under 15, 15-64,
and 65 and over),
and age composition: Medium-fertility (high-mortality) projection
Table 5-5Total population, population by the major three age groups (under 15, 15-64,
and 65 and over),
and age composition: Medium-fertility (low-mortality) projection
Table 5-6 Total population: Medium-, high-, and low-fertility (medium-, high-, and low-mortality) projections
For the results of Population Projections for Japan (January 2012): 2011 to 2060, visit https://www.ipss.go.jp/index-e.asp or contact Department of Population Dynamics Research, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research.
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