The Population Projections for Japan project the size and structure of the population into the future based on assumptions on future fertility, mortality, and international migration levels. Given that future changes in fertility, mortality and international migration cannot be known with certainty, the IPSS projections provide a well-defined range of likely future population developments by computing variants based on alternative scenarios.
The projections cover the total population living in Japan, including non-Japanese residents. This is the same framework as used by the Population Census of Japan. The period of projections begins with the 2010 Population Census and continues until 2060, projecting the population as of October 1 for each year. Note that we additionally extended the population calculations up to 2110 and added these as auxiliary projections.
The method of projection is as follows: we set assumptions on individual components of the population dynamics, i.e., birth, death, and international migration, by sex and age, and projected the population demographic trends by sex and age into the future using the cohort component method. Assumptions are made based on actual statistics for each component using the demographic method. (For further details, refer to section “III Summary of the Method Used for Population Projections.”)
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