Contents

I. Summary of the Japanese Population Projection

1. Trend of the Total Population
2. Population Trend for Three Major Age Groups
3. Trend of the Proportion of Three Major Age Groups
4. Changes in the Population Pyramid
5. Trend of the Population Dependency Ratio
6. Trend of the Births, Deaths and their Rates

II. Summary of the Methodology and Assumptions for the Population Projections

1. Period of Projection
2. Method of Projection
3. Base Population
4. Assumption of the Survival Rate (Future Life Table)
5. Assumptions of Fertility Rates
6. Assumption of Sex Ratio at Births
7. Assumption of International Migration

Projections Results
Figure 1 Actual and projected population of Japan, 1950-2050
Figure 2 Trends in the percentage of the aged population, 1950-2050
Figure 3 Trends in the number of the major age composition, 1950-2050: Medium Variant
Figure 4 Trends in the percentage of the major age composition of the total population, 1950-2050: Medium variant
Figure 5 Population pyramid: Medium variant
Table 1 Projected future population and proportion by age group, 2000-2050: Medium variant
Table 2 Projected future population and proportion by age group, 2000-2050: High variant
Table 3 Projected future population and proportion by age group, 2000-2050: Low variant
Table 4 Selected age-structure indices of future population, 2000-2050: Medium variant
Table 5 Trends in live births,deaths,and natural increase, 2001-2050: Medium variant
Figure 6 Actual and Projected life expectancy at birth, 1950-2050
Table 6 Actual and projected life expectancy at birth
Figure 7 Actual and projected total fertility rate, 1950-2050
Table 7 Actual and projected total period fertility rate under the three variants
Figure 8 Actual sex ratio at birth, 1985-2000
Table 8 Number of birth and sex ratio at birth, 1970-2000
Figure 9 Assumption of net (entries minus exits) international migration rate for Japanese population (1) Male (2)Female
Figure 10 Assumption of the amount of net (entries minus exits) international migrants for not-Japanese population
Figure 11 Assumption of the age pattern of net international migration for non-Japanese population

Result of Long-Range Projection

In order to project the population trend from 2000 to 2100, a long-range projection for the years between 2051 and 2100 was carried out. We assumed that the survival rate, sex ratio at births, and rate of international net-migration would remain constant for 2050 and thereafter, and the fertility rate would regress from the level in 2050 to 2.07, the population replacement level for 2050 to 2150.

Reference Figure 1 Actual and projected population of Japan, 1950-2100
Reference Figure 2 Trends in the number of the major age composition, 1950-2100: Medium Variant
Reference Figure 3 Trends in the percentage of the major age composition of the total population, 1950-2100: Medium variant
Reference Figure 4 Trends in the percentage of the aged population, 1950-2100
Reference Table 1Projected future population and proportion by age group, 2051-2100: Medium variant
Reference Table 2 Projected future population and proportion by age group, 2051-2100: High variant
Reference Table 3 Projected future population and proportion by age group, 2051-2100: Low variant
Reference Table 4 Selected age-structure indices of future population, 2051-2100:Medium variant
Reference Table 5 STrends in live births,deaths,and natural increase, 2051-2100: Medium variant

Please direct inquiries to:Department of Population Dynamics Research, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research
TEL: +81(0)3-3595-2992
FAX: +81(0)3-3591-4817

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