1. Trend of the Total Population
According to the 2000 population census, the base year of this projection, the
total population of Japan was 126.93 million. Based on the results of the medium
variant projection, the population is expected to gradually increase in subsequent
years, reaching its peak of 127.74 million in 2006, then enter a longstanding
depopulation process. The population is expected to drop to the current size by
2013, then decrease to about 100.6 million in 2050 (see
Table 1, Figure 1).
Based on the results of the high variant projection, the gross population is
expected to reach its peak in 2009 at 128.15 million, a little later than the
medium variant projection. A downward turn is expected subsequently, reaching
108.25 million in 2050 (see Table 2, Figure
1).
Based on the results of the low variant projection, the total population is
expected to reach its peak of 127.48 million in 2004, then subsequently decrease
to 92.03 million in 2050 (see Table 3, Figure
1).
These projections show that Japan will soon enter into the era of population
decline, bringing the trend of population increase to an end. The fact that the
fertility rate has been far below the level required to maintain the stationary
population (population replacement level, total fertility rate requires approximately
2.08) since the mid-70s, together with the low-fertility rate trend continuing
for a quarter-century, make the depopulation which start at the beginning of this
century almost inevitable.
2. Population Trend for Three Major Age Groups
(1) Trend of Child Population (aged under 15)
The number of births has declined from 2.09 million in 1973 to 1.19 million in
2000. Consequently, the population of this age group has decreased from 27 million
in the beginning of the 1980s to 18.51 million in the population census of 2000.
According to the medium variant projection, the children's population will diminish
to the 17 million level in 2003 (see Table 1, Figure
3). The decline will continue together with the low fertility rate trend,
and the population of this age group is expected to fall below 16 million in 2016,
then enter the slow, longstanding depopulation process. Eventually, in the last
year of projection (2050), the population is expected to be 10.84 million.
According to the children's population trends based on the difference of the
future fertility assumptions in terms of high and low variant projections, this
age group is expected to be on the decline even in the high variant projection
(due to the longstanding low fertility) and will reach 14 million in 2050 (see
Table 2). According to the low variant projection, a
rapid decline in population in this age group due to the very low fertility rate
is expected. The projection is that the population will diminish from the current
size of 18 million to below 15 million in 2014, and eventually down to 7.5 million
by the middle of this century (see Table 3).
(2) Trend of Working-age Population (15 to 64)
The population of the working-age group has consistently increased during the
post-war years, and reached its peak in the 1995 census at 87.17 million. It subsequently
entered a decreasing phase, and according to the census figures compiled in 2000,
the population has diminished to 86.38 million.
According to the medium variant projection, the population of this age group
reached its peak in 1995, subsequently made an about-turn to enter a declining
phase, and is expected to fall below 70 million in 2030, and eventually drop to
53.89 million in 2050 (see Table 1, Figure
3).
According to the working-age population trend based on the differences on the
assumptions of fertility rate in terms of high and low variant projections, the
depopulation of this age group is rather slow due to the high fertility rate,
and the population is expected to fall below 70 million in 2033. The depopulation
continues down to 58.38 million in 2050 (see Table 2).
The working-age population based on the low variant projections is expected to
fall below 70 million in 2028, below 50 million in 2049, and eventually drop to
48.68 million in 2050 (see Table 3).
(3) Trend of Aged Population (aged 65 and over)
The results of the medium variant projection show that, contrary to the decline
in the populations of the children's and working-age groups, the aged group will
continue its fast-paced increase, growing from the current size of about 22 million
to 30 million in 2013, and eventually up to 34.17 million in 2018 (see Table
1, Figure 3). That is, this age group will grow rapidly
until the baby-boom generation (born between 1947 and 1949) is in the over-65
age bracket. Subsequently, with the generation that reduced the post-war growth
entering the aged group, the speed of increase slows down; the population will
peak in 2043 when the second baby-boom generation enters the aged group, then
takes a downward turn to about 35.86 million in 2050. The high and low variant
projections show the same result as the medium variant projection, since the assumptions
of the future survival rate and international migration are the same (see Table
2, Table 3).
3. Trend of the Proportion of Three Major Age Groups
(1) Trend of Child Population (aged under 15)
The proportion of this group, according to the medium variant projection, is expected
to shrink from the current 14.6% level (2000) to the 14% mark in 2005, and eventually
down to 12.0% in 2021 (see Table 1, Figure
4). The downward trend continues to 11.0% in 2036, and by 2050, the percentage
is expected to be around 10.8%.
The high variant projection show that the decline in the proportion of the
children's population is rather slow, falling below the 14% range in 2007, then
down to 12.9% in 2050.
The decline in the proportion of the children's population is rapid in the
low variant projections, breaking the 14% mark in 2004, falling below 10% in 2024,
and eventually down to 8.1% in 2050.
(2) Trend of Working-age Population (15 to 64)
The population of the working-age group, according to the medium variant projection,
started falling in 2000 at 68.1%, and is expected to reduce to 60.0% in 2020 (see
Table 1, Figure 4). The decline
continues on slowly to 10 points lower than the current standard in 2035 at 58.0%,
54.9% in 2043, and eventually to 53.6% in 2050.
The annual trend of the high variant projection shows similar results, except
that the decline trend is slightly slower. The proportion of this age group in
2050 is only 0.3 points higher than the medium variant projection (53.9%).
The proportion of this age group for the low variant projection shows a slower
reduction as compared with the medium variant projection - that is, the percentage
reaches 60.0% in 2030. However, the subsequent decline is fast-paced, reaching
52.9% in 2050. This seemingly contradictory trend results from the proportion
of the working-age group being the relative index.
(3) Trend of Aged Population (aged 65 and over)
The percentage of the aged generation will grow from the current 17.4% (2000)
to the 25% range in 2014, meaning that this age group will comprise one-quarter
of the population of Japan. It will reach 27.0% in 2017 (see Table
1, Figure 3). The aged generation will undergo a
trend after 2018 until around 2034 when it reaches the 34 million range, continues
to increase after 2018 impacted by the low fertility rate, and eventually reaches
the 30 plus-percent range in 2033. The increase persists, reaching 35.7% in 2050;
that is, 1 in 2.8 persons will be over 65.
The variance in the aging trend due to the difference in the assumptions of
fertility rate, as compared with the results of the high and low variant projections,
shows only a minor variance until around 2018. A difference of 1.5 points is seen
between the low variant projection in 2025 (29.5%) and the high variant projection
during the same period (28.0%) (see Table 2, Figure
3). This difference shows the impact that the future fertility rate has on
aging. The difference in the aging level grows wider as the years go by, and in
2050 the high variant is 33.1%, whereas the low variant is 39.0%, the difference
being 5.9 points. Hence, the longstanding low fertility rate in society has a
relative effect on the aging population level (see Figure
2).
4. Changes in the Population Pyramid
The population pyramid in Japan, in general, continues to age. The pyramid appears
uneven at the older age bracket, because of the fast-paced fluctuation in the
past fertility rates - that is, the rapid increase in the number of live birth
from 1947 to 1949 (first baby-boom) and the sharp decline in live birth from 1950
to 1957 (baby bust) (see Figure 5).
The population pyramid in 2000 consists of the first baby-boomer generation
at the beginning of the 50s, and the second baby-boomer generation at the end
of the 20s. In the 2025 pyramid, the first baby-boomers will be at the end of
the 70s, and the second baby-boomers at the beginning of the 50s. It can therefore
be concluded that the aging of society toward 2025 is centered on the first baby-boomer
generation. On the other hand, the rise in the aging standard around 2050 is the
result of interaction of the aging of the second baby-boomer generation and the
downsizing of the population per generation.
Hence the population pyramid in Japan has transformed from the pre-war shape of
Mt. Fuji to the recent shape of a temple bell, and finally to an urn-shape in
the future.
5. Trend of the Population Dependency Ratio
The population dependency ratio is used as an index to express the level of support
of the working-age group, through comparison of the relative size of the children's
and aged populations versus the population of the working-age group. The old-age
dependency ratio (calculated by dividing the aged population by the population
of the working-age group) based on the medium variant projection increases from
the current 26% (that is, 3.9 labor forces supporting 1 senior resident) to the
50% range in 2030 (that is, 2 labor forces supporting 1 senior resident), then
eventually up to 67% in 2050 (that is, 1.5 labor forces supporting 1 senior resident)
(see Table 4). In contrast, the child dependency ratio
(calculated by dividing the children's population by the population of the working-age
group) is expected to undergo a trend from the current 21% (that is, 4.7 labor
forces supporting 1 child resident) to a level of 19 to 21% in the future.
Despite the assumption that the low fertility rate reduces the children's population,
the child dependency ratio is not expected to decrease considerably, because the
parent generation, the working-age group, itself shrinks in size.
The child dependency ratio and the old-age dependency ratio added together is
called the overall dependency ratio, and this ratio is used to see the degree
of support on the entire working-age population; the overall dependency ratio
increases along with the trend of the old-age dependency ratio. The overall dependency
ratio is expected to increase to 67% in 2022 from the current 47% under the declining
trend of the working-age population, then reach 87% in 2050.
6. Trend of the Births, Deaths and their Rates
According to the medium variant projection, the crude death rate (mortality per
thousand) is expected to continue its increase from 7.7‰(per mill) in 2001
to 12.1‰ in 2020, and eventually to 16.2‰ in 2050 (see Table
5). Although the assumption of continual boost in life expectancy and increase
in crude death rate seem contradictory, it is because the ratio of senior population
with a high mortality rate will increase as the population in Japan ages rapidly.
The crude fertility rate (births per thousand) is expected to decline from
9.4‰ in 2001 to 8.0‰ in 2013. The crude fertility rate continues to
decline in subsequent years, reaching 7.0‰ in 2035 and to 6.7‰ in 2050.
The crude rate of natural increase, the difference between the crude fertility
rate and the crude death rate, is expected to remain positive at the current 1.7‰
for a while, but will become negative in 2006, and eventually will reach -9.5‰
in 2050.
According to this medium variant projection, annual births continue to decrease
from 1.19 million in 2001, and are expected to fall below 1.10 million in 2008,
and eventually down to less than 1 million in 2014. The number of births continues
to shrink, down to 67 thousand in 2050 (see Table 5).
On the other hand, the number of deaths continues to increase from 98 thousands
in 2001, to 1.51 million in 2021, and peaks at 1.7 million in 2038. It will then
show a slight decrease, down to about 1.62 million, in 2050.
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