Population Projections for Japan (January 2012)
―――― 2011 to 2060 ――――
Appendix: Auxiliary Projections 2061 to 2110

 Based on the latest results from the Population Census of Japan and the Vital Statistics of Japan, the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research in Japan (IPSS) has conducted a new national population projection exercise (Population Projections for Japan).

This is the 14th release of national population projections by the Institute, including the period before the integration between the Institute of Population Problems and the Social Development Research Institute.

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A. The Results of Projections According to the Three Fertility Variants
  with Medium-Mortality Assumption

 1. Population Size and Growth
 2. Population Age Composition
 3. Age Dependency Ratio
 4. Changes in the Population Pyramid

B. The Results of Projections According to the Medium-Fertility Assumption
  with High- and Low-Mortality Assumptions

 1. Summary of the Results of Projection with High-Mortality Assumption
 2. Summary of the Results of Projection with Low-Mortality Assumption


 1. Jump-off Population
 2. Assumptions for Fertility Rates and Sex Ratio at Birth
 3. Assumptions for Survival Rates (Future Life Table)
 4. Assumptions for the International Migration Rate (Numbers)

IV Auxiliary Projections

V Summary Tables and Figures

 A. Summary of Results and Assumptions
 B. Results of Projections According to the Three Fertility Variants
   with Medium-Mortality Assumption
 C. Results of Projections According to the Medium-Fertility Assumption
   with High- and Low-Mortality Assumptions
 D. Comparison of Projection Variants
 E. Assumption Values
 F. Results of Auxiliary Projections

Results of Projections

<< the Three Fertility Variants with Medium-Mortality Assumption >>

Table 1-1 Total population, population by the major three age groups (under 15, 15-64, and 65 and over),
       and age composition: Medium-fertility (medium-mortality) projection


Table 1-2 Total population, population by the major three age groups (under 15, 15-64, and 65 and over),
       and age composition: High-fertility (medium-mortality) projection


Table 1-3 Total population, population by the major three age groups (under 15, 15-64, and 65 and over),
       and age composition: Low-fertility (medium-mortality) projection


Table 1-4 Mean age and dependency ratio: Medium-, high-, and low-fertility (medium-mortality) projection

Figure 1-1 Actual and projected population of Japan: Medium-, high-, and low-fertility
        (medium-mortality) projections


Figure 1-2 Trends in the proportion of elderly (aged 65 and over): Medium-, high-, and low-fertility
         (medium-mortality) projections


Figure 1-3 Trends in the population of major three age groups: Medium-fertility
        (medium-mortality) projections


Figure 1-4 Trends in the proportion of major three age groups: Medium-fertility
        (medium-mortality) projections


Figure 1-5 Population pyramid: Three fertility variant projections (medium-mortality)

<< the Medium-Fertility Assumption with High- and Low-Mortality Assumptions >>

Table 2-1 Total population, population by the major three age groups (under 15, 15-64, and 65 and over),
        and age composition: Medium-fertility (high-mortality) projection


Table 2-2 Total population, population by the major three age groups (under 15, 15-64, and 65 and over),
        and age composition: Medium-fertility (low-mortality) projection


Table 2-3 Mean age and dependency ratio: Medium-fertility (medium-, high-, and low-mortality) projections

Figure 2-1 Actual and projected population of Japan: Medium-fertility
         (medium-, high-, and low-mortality) projections


Figure 2-2 Trends in the proportion of elderly (aged 65 and over): Medium-fertility
         (medium-, high-, and low-mortality) projections


<< Comparison of Projection Variants >>

Table 3-1 Total population: Medium-, high-, and low-fertility (medium-, high-, and low-mortality) projections
Table 3-2 Projections of Proportion of Young-age Population (under 15):
        Medium-, high-, and low-fertility (medium-, high-, and low-mortality) projections


Table 3-3 Projections of Proportion of Working-age Population (15-64): Medium-, high-, and low-fertility
        (medium-, high-, and low-mortality) projections


Table 3-4 Projections of Proportion of Old Age Population (65 and over): Medium-, high-, and low-fertility
        (medium-, high-, and low-mortality) projections


<< Assumption Values >>

Table 4-1 Development of the Total Fertility Rate
Table 4-2 Development of Life Expectancy at Birth by Sex
Table 4-3 Age-specific net international migration rates by sex for Japanese
Table 4-4 Number of net migrants of non-Japanese origin by sex
Table 4-5 Age distributions of net migrants of non-Japanese origin by sex

Figure 4-1 Trends of the total fertility rate: Medium-, high-, and low-variant projections
Figure 4-2 Trends of life expectancy: Medium-, high-, and low-variant projections
Figure 4-3 Age-specific net international migration rates by sex for Japanese
Figure 4-4 Number of net migrants of non-Japanese origin (both sexes)
Figure 4-5 Age distributions of net migrants of non-Japanese origin by sex


Results of Auxiliary Projections
We made auxiliary projections for the period from 2061 to 2110, which may be used as a reference for analysis of long-term population projections. In these projections, the survival rate-fertility rate, sex ratio at birth, and international migration rate are assumed to remain constant from 2061.

For the results of Population Projections for Japan (January 2012): 2011 to 2060, visit http://www.ipss.go.jp/index-e.asp or contact Department of Population Dynamics Research, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research.


IPSS