The National Institute of Population and Social Security Research
officially announced a new round of population projections for Japan in January
1997. This article outlines the projection results and describes the methods used to
obtain them. The projections, made following the release of 1995 census data,
provide three variants based on three different scenarios of fertility prospects:
medium, high, and low fertility variant projections. According to the medium
projection, the population of Japan will increase from 125.6 million in 1995 to a
peak of 127.8 million in 2007, followed by a constant decrease to 100.5 million in
2050. The proportion aged 65 and over will expand from 14.6% in 1995 to 32.3%
in 2050. The projected loss of population and aging will be due mainly to the
continuous below-replacement fertility rate during the past and coming decades.
The projections incorporated some factors of low fertility such as later and fewer
marriages. This article explains how the fertility and mortality prospects were
provided for the projections as well as the results of analyses on which the
prospects were based.
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