I. Summary of the Japanese Population Projection

1. Trend of the Total Population
According to the 2000 population census, the base year of this projection, the total population of Japan was 126.93 million. Based on the results of the medium variant projection, the population is expected to gradually increase in subsequent years, reaching its peak of 127.74 million in 2006, then enter a longstanding depopulation process. The population is expected to drop to the current size by 2013, then decrease to about 100.6 million in 2050 (see Table 1, Figure 1).

Based on the results of the high variant projection, the gross population is expected to reach its peak in 2009 at 128.15 million, a little later than the medium variant projection. A downward turn is expected subsequently, reaching 108.25 million in 2050 (see Table 2, Figure 1).

Based on the results of the low variant projection, the total population is expected to reach its peak of 127.48 million in 2004, then subsequently decrease to 92.03 million in 2050 (see Table 3, Figure 1).

These projections show that Japan will soon enter into the era of population decline, bringing the trend of population increase to an end. The fact that the fertility rate has been far below the level required to maintain the stationary population (population replacement level, total fertility rate requires approximately 2.08) since the mid-70s, together with the low-fertility rate trend continuing for a quarter-century, make the depopulation which start at the beginning of this century almost inevitable.

2. Population Trend for Three Major Age Groups
(1) Trend of Child Population (aged under 15)
The number of births has declined from 2.09 million in 1973 to 1.19 million in 2000. Consequently, the population of this age group has decreased from 27 million in the beginning of the 1980s to 18.51 million in the population census of 2000. According to the medium variant projection, the children's population will diminish to the 17 million level in 2003 (see Table 1, Figure 3). The decline will continue together with the low fertility rate trend, and the population of this age group is expected to fall below 16 million in 2016, then enter the slow, longstanding depopulation process. Eventually, in the last year of projection (2050), the population is expected to be 10.84 million.

According to the children's population trends based on the difference of the future fertility assumptions in terms of high and low variant projections, this age group is expected to be on the decline even in the high variant projection (due to the longstanding low fertility) and will reach 14 million in 2050 (see Table 2). According to the low variant projection, a rapid decline in population in this age group due to the very low fertility rate is expected. The projection is that the population will diminish from the current size of 18 million to below 15 million in 2014, and eventually down to 7.5 million by the middle of this century (see Table 3).

(2) Trend of Working-age Population (15 to 64)
The population of the working-age group has consistently increased during the post-war years, and reached its peak in the 1995 census at 87.17 million. It subsequently entered a decreasing phase, and according to the census figures compiled in 2000, the population has diminished to 86.38 million.

According to the medium variant projection, the population of this age group reached its peak in 1995, subsequently made an about-turn to enter a declining phase, and is expected to fall below 70 million in 2030, and eventually drop to 53.89 million in 2050 (see Table 1, Figure 3).

According to the working-age population trend based on the differences on the assumptions of fertility rate in terms of high and low variant projections, the depopulation of this age group is rather slow due to the high fertility rate, and the population is expected to fall below 70 million in 2033. The depopulation continues down to 58.38 million in 2050 (see Table 2). The working-age population based on the low variant projections is expected to fall below 70 million in 2028, below 50 million in 2049, and eventually drop to 48.68 million in 2050 (see Table 3).

(3) Trend of Aged Population (aged 65 and over)
The results of the medium variant projection show that, contrary to the decline in the populations of the children's and working-age groups, the aged group will continue its fast-paced increase, growing from the current size of about 22 million to 30 million in 2013, and eventually up to 34.17 million in 2018 (see Table 1, Figure 3). That is, this age group will grow rapidly until the baby-boom generation (born between 1947 and 1949) is in the over-65 age bracket. Subsequently, with the generation that reduced the post-war growth entering the aged group, the speed of increase slows down; the population will peak in 2043 when the second baby-boom generation enters the aged group, then takes a downward turn to about 35.86 million in 2050. The high and low variant projections show the same result as the medium variant projection, since the assumptions of the future survival rate and international migration are the same (see Table 2, Table 3).

3. Trend of the Proportion of Three Major Age Groups
(1) Trend of Child Population (aged under 15)
The proportion of this group, according to the medium variant projection, is expected to shrink from the current 14.6% level (2000) to the 14% mark in 2005, and eventually down to 12.0% in 2021 (see Table 1, Figure 4). The downward trend continues to 11.0% in 2036, and by 2050, the percentage is expected to be around 10.8%.

The high variant projection show that the decline in the proportion of the children's population is rather slow, falling below the 14% range in 2007, then down to 12.9% in 2050.

The decline in the proportion of the children's population is rapid in the low variant projections, breaking the 14% mark in 2004, falling below 10% in 2024, and eventually down to 8.1% in 2050.

(2) Trend of Working-age Population (15 to 64)
The population of the working-age group, according to the medium variant projection, started falling in 2000 at 68.1%, and is expected to reduce to 60.0% in 2020 (see Table 1, Figure 4). The decline continues on slowly to 10 points lower than the current standard in 2035 at 58.0%, 54.9% in 2043, and eventually to 53.6% in 2050.

The annual trend of the high variant projection shows similar results, except that the decline trend is slightly slower. The proportion of this age group in 2050 is only 0.3 points higher than the medium variant projection (53.9%).

The proportion of this age group for the low variant projection shows a slower reduction as compared with the medium variant projection - that is, the percentage reaches 60.0% in 2030. However, the subsequent decline is fast-paced, reaching 52.9% in 2050. This seemingly contradictory trend results from the proportion of the working-age group being the relative index.

(3) Trend of Aged Population (aged 65 and over)
The percentage of the aged generation will grow from the current 17.4% (2000) to the 25% range in 2014, meaning that this age group will comprise one-quarter of the population of Japan. It will reach 27.0% in 2017 (see Table 1, Figure 3). The aged generation will undergo a trend after 2018 until around 2034 when it reaches the 34 million range, continues to increase after 2018 impacted by the low fertility rate, and eventually reaches the 30 plus-percent range in 2033. The increase persists, reaching 35.7% in 2050; that is, 1 in 2.8 persons will be over 65.

The variance in the aging trend due to the difference in the assumptions of fertility rate, as compared with the results of the high and low variant projections, shows only a minor variance until around 2018. A difference of 1.5 points is seen between the low variant projection in 2025 (29.5%) and the high variant projection during the same period (28.0%) (see Table 2, Figure 3). This difference shows the impact that the future fertility rate has on aging. The difference in the aging level grows wider as the years go by, and in 2050 the high variant is 33.1%, whereas the low variant is 39.0%, the difference being 5.9 points. Hence, the longstanding low fertility rate in society has a relative effect on the aging population level (see Figure 2).

4. Changes in the Population Pyramid
The population pyramid in Japan, in general, continues to age. The pyramid appears uneven at the older age bracket, because of the fast-paced fluctuation in the past fertility rates - that is, the rapid increase in the number of live birth from 1947 to 1949 (first baby-boom) and the sharp decline in live birth from 1950 to 1957 (baby bust) (see Figure 5).

The population pyramid in 2000 consists of the first baby-boomer generation at the beginning of the 50s, and the second baby-boomer generation at the end of the 20s. In the 2025 pyramid, the first baby-boomers will be at the end of the 70s, and the second baby-boomers at the beginning of the 50s. It can therefore be concluded that the aging of society toward 2025 is centered on the first baby-boomer generation. On the other hand, the rise in the aging standard around 2050 is the result of interaction of the aging of the second baby-boomer generation and the downsizing of the population per generation.
Hence the population pyramid in Japan has transformed from the pre-war shape of Mt. Fuji to the recent shape of a temple bell, and finally to an urn-shape in the future.

5. Trend of the Population Dependency Ratio
The population dependency ratio is used as an index to express the level of support of the working-age group, through comparison of the relative size of the children's and aged populations versus the population of the working-age group. The old-age dependency ratio (calculated by dividing the aged population by the population of the working-age group) based on the medium variant projection increases from the current 26% (that is, 3.9 labor forces supporting 1 senior resident) to the 50% range in 2030 (that is, 2 labor forces supporting 1 senior resident), then eventually up to 67% in 2050 (that is, 1.5 labor forces supporting 1 senior resident) (see Table 4). In contrast, the child dependency ratio (calculated by dividing the children's population by the population of the working-age group) is expected to undergo a trend from the current 21% (that is, 4.7 labor forces supporting 1 child resident) to a level of 19 to 21% in the future.

Despite the assumption that the low fertility rate reduces the children's population, the child dependency ratio is not expected to decrease considerably, because the parent generation, the working-age group, itself shrinks in size.
The child dependency ratio and the old-age dependency ratio added together is called the overall dependency ratio, and this ratio is used to see the degree of support on the entire working-age population; the overall dependency ratio increases along with the trend of the old-age dependency ratio. The overall dependency ratio is expected to increase to 67% in 2022 from the current 47% under the declining trend of the working-age population, then reach 87% in 2050.

6. Trend of the Births, Deaths and their Rates
According to the medium variant projection, the crude death rate (mortality per thousand) is expected to continue its increase from 7.7‰(per mill) in 2001 to 12.1‰ in 2020, and eventually to 16.2‰ in 2050 (see Table 5). Although the assumption of continual boost in life expectancy and increase in crude death rate seem contradictory, it is because the ratio of senior population with a high mortality rate will increase as the population in Japan ages rapidly.

The crude fertility rate (births per thousand) is expected to decline from 9.4‰ in 2001 to 8.0‰ in 2013. The crude fertility rate continues to decline in subsequent years, reaching 7.0‰ in 2035 and to 6.7‰ in 2050.

The crude rate of natural increase, the difference between the crude fertility rate and the crude death rate, is expected to remain positive at the current 1.7‰ for a while, but will become negative in 2006, and eventually will reach -9.5‰ in 2050.

According to this medium variant projection, annual births continue to decrease from 1.19 million in 2001, and are expected to fall below 1.10 million in 2008, and eventually down to less than 1 million in 2014. The number of births continues to shrink, down to 67 thousand in 2050 (see Table 5). On the other hand, the number of deaths continues to increase from 98 thousands in 2001, to 1.51 million in 2021, and peaks at 1.7 million in 2038. It will then show a slight decrease, down to about 1.62 million, in 2050.


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