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Date and time: 14:00 - 16:00, March 24 (Friday), 2017
Place: IPSS Meeting Room No.4, 6th floor, Hibiya Kokusai Building, 2-2-3 Uchisaiwai-cho, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo
MAP
(TEL 03-3595-2984)
Lecturer: Frans Willekens (Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI) The Hague, The Netherlands)
Abstract:
Individual-based models (IBM) and microsimulation allow for greater flexibility than conventional cohort component models. They also permit an internally consistent approach to missing data. IBM describe life histories of fictitious individuals. Individuals are defined by personal attributes, such as age, sex, education, occupation and health status and persons with the same observed and unobserved attributes are identical. Life histories are operationalized as sequences of states and transitions between states. Transition rates are individual properties, as proposed by Keyfitz and Caswell. They depend on the characteristics of the individual and context. The occurrence of a transition and the age at transition depend on the individual transition rates and chance.
Transition rates are estimated from data. Censuses, surveys and population registers are main sources of data. To study a population or project a population, a representative sample is taken. The life histories of individuals in the sample and their offspring are projected into the future using empirical transition rates and hypotheses about future changes in transition rates.
The method is illustrated using published data from DPRK, in particular the 2008 Census and the Socio-Economic, Demographic and Health Survey 2014 (SDHS-2014).
The data used are available at:
2008 Census: National Report
The SDHS-2014 collected information from 13,250 households. the report
*Presentation will be given in English.
*Please register either by e-mail (tokubetsu@ipss.go.jp) or fax (03-3591-4821) with your name, affiliation and contact information (tel, fax or e-mail)